000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 88W MOVING W 10 KT.  ILL-DEFINED 
FEATURES WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING W 10 KT. STRONG 
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PRECLUDES ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

BROAD LOW PRES CENTER AT 13N118W 1008 MB HAS BEEN LOSING ITS 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS EASTERLY SHEAR DID 
NOT DIMINISH AS FORECASTED.  CHANCES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
DECREASED AS LOW PRES APPROACHES VERY DRY AIRMASS UNDER ADVERSE 
WESTERLY SHEAR W OF 122W.    

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N83W 9N88W 8N97W 12N116W 7N126W 4N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS E OF 97W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 101W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 29N140W 
TO 15N129W DRIFTING NW.  AREA OF DRY AIR/MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N W OF 125W.  DOWNSTREAM...BROAD MID/UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS RIDGE EXTENDING DRY AREA N  
OF 18N ALL THE WAY TO COAST OF MEXICO.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE 
SNEAKS INTO E PAC AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ON EASTERLY 
FLOW.  UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 19N99W HAS WEAK TROUGH TO 
5N95W.   

AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH N OF AREA 
EXTEND TO 28N E OF 124W TO NRN BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA  WITH 
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO ITCZ TO COAST OF MEXICO 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA E OF ABOUT 110W.

$$
WALLY BARNES