000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 87W MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED.  ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 9N86W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING W 10 KT. THERE 
IS CURRENTLY NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

A BROAD LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117.5W 1008 MB. A SWIRL OF 
LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN SEEN IN OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 
FIRST COUPLE MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND CHANCES FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT HAVE DECREASED. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 14.5N116W TO 14N119W AND 
WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N119.5W.    

..ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 9N87W 9N100W 8N110W 12N116W 9N130W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 5N E OF 81W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N86W 
AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 94W TO 100W AND 108W TO 112W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 
10.5N114.5W TO 9N119W.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS LOCATED SOUTH 
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N92W 
14N96W TO 16.5N99.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA NEAR 27N137W. THIS FEATURES APPEARS TO BE MOVING NW ABOUT 
10-15 KT. THE LOW IS WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. IN 
FACT... DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA SW TO NEAR 30N123W. AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
LOCATED ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COVERS THE AREA N OF 
28N E OF 124W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LARGE WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
19N118W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 25N124W 
TO 28N128W. ANTICYCLONE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERS THE AREA 
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH 
DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY 
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT 5N96W. FARTHER EAST...A RIDGE EXTENDS W 
FROM A MID/UPPER HIGH OVER NW COLOMBIA. THE RIDGE EXTENDS 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO ABOUT 9N89W.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD WESTWARD GRADUALLY REPLACING THE WEAK TROUGH. WITH 
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO THE 
COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA E OF ABOUT 110W.

$$
BROWN