000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 12N118W MOVING W 10 KT. CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER THE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW MAY 
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 86W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 7N BETWEEN 
83W-86W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N WITHIN 180 
NM E OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W FROM 3N TO LOW PRES MENTIONED IN 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 10 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 1N TO 10N MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...7N78W 6N90W 9N110W 4N125W 5N135W 4N140W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 5N E OF 80W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
FROM 83W TO 86W AND 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 105W TO 108W 
AND 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 30N140W TO 15N133W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 130W.  
E  OF THE TROUGH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED AT 
20N119W AND COVERS AREA N OF 10N FROM 105W TO 130W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENHANCING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 12N92W COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA 
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN FROM PANAMA TO COSTA 
RICA WITH STRONG TSTMS IN THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO 19N110W. LARGE 
AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
COVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W.

$$
DGS