000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201617
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRESS 1009 MB NEAR 12N115W IS MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN BANDS ARE ROTATING 
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER MAINLY WITHIN 180-240 NM IN THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE BUT 
DIFLUENT E TO SE FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PROVIDE A RATHER 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W 12-15 KT BASED 
ON A 24 HOUR MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W/114W FROM 4N TO 12N MOVING W 12 KT 
BASED ON A 24 HOUR MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF 8N. WAVE IS MASKED BY LOW PRES 
TO THE NW OF THE WAVE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...7N78W 9N100W 9N114W 5N125W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 83W AND 
WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 108W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W 
AND 91W AND BETWEEN 111W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 130W WITH 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N135W.
CIRCULATION WAS MOVING NW 10 KT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AT 
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 128W. FURTHER E...VERY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 22N114W COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 
130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE 1009 MB
LOW PRES. A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS INDICATED NEAR 11N90W. 
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS WAS OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE MAINLY 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGES COVERS 
THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W.

$$
COBB