000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 4N TO 14N MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE EXISTS W OF WAVE AXIS ALONG ITCZ.  
WAVE APPROACHING MORE ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT.  CONVECTION HAS 
BEGUN A DIMINISHING TREND. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 3N TO 14N MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 7N TO 
15N.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES 10.5N114W MERGING WITH 
WAVE.  WHILE MOST MODELS FORECAST NOT TOO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
ALOFT...THEY ARE NOW INDICATING LESS ADVERSE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. 
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AS EXPECTED AND GFS AND CMC ARE NOW 
EXTENDING LIFE OF LOW PRES FOR LONGER TIMES.     

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM E OF WAVE AXIS SHOWS 
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. 

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...6N77W 9N101W 10N110W 6N123W 10N131W 8N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS E OF 86W 
AND FROM 106W TO 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO LARGE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N138W THEN TO 23N140W HAS VERY DRY 
AIR MASS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING AREA N OF 14N W OF 
133W.  

VERY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 21N112W COVERS E 
PAC BASIN N OF 10N TO 92W.  SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ALLOWS PLENTY 
OF MOISTURE FROM EQUATORIAL SOUTH AMERICA TO ADVECT W ALONG ITCZ 
FROM COAST TO 123W.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IT PRESENTS UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL WAVES ALONG. 

AT THE SURFACE...HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1034 MB WELL N OF AREA 
DRIFTING E CONTINUE PRODUCING STRONG N WINDS AGAINST CALIFORNIA 
COAST AND SENDING LARGE SWELLS S ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE 
WATERS.    

WEAK LOW PRES 1010 MB 10.5N114W HAS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION 
MERGING WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W.  CONDITIONS 
ALOFT WHICH WERE NOT TOO FAVORABLE PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE FORECAST 
TO BECOME LESS UNFAVORABLE ALLOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO 
MAINTAIN LOW PRES CENTER ACTIVE FOR LONGER TIME BEFORE IT 
REACHES HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT 48-72 HRS DOWNSTREAM.    

$$
WALLY BARNES