000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192225
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE EXISTS W OF WAVE AXIS ALONG ITCZ.  
WAVE APPROACHING MORE ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO START 
DECREASING CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF E WAVE AXIS ALONG 
ITCZ.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES 11N113W WILL MERGE 
WITH WAVE BUT CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT LOOK TOO FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WARRANTS MONITORING IT.   

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W 12 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM E OF WAVE AXIS SHOWS 
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...6N77W 9N105W 11N110W 7N121W 10N130W 8N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS E OF 86W 
AND FROM 106W TO 121W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS 
W OF 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO LARGE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N137W THEN TO 13N140W HAS VERY DRY 
AIR MASS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING AREA N OF 16N W OF 
128W.  

VERY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS E PAC BASIN N OF 10N 
TO 92W.  SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ALLOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM 
EQUATORIAL SOUTH AMERICA TO ADVECT W ALONG ITCZ FROM COAST TO 
121W.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IT PRESENTS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
ALOFT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL WAVES ALONG. 

AT THE SURFACE...HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1034 MB WELL N OF AREA 
DRIFTING E CONTINUE PRODUCING STRONG N WINDS AGAINST CALIFORNIA 
COAST AND SENDING LARGE SWELLS S ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE 
WATERS.    

WEAK LOW PRES 1010 MB 11N113W HAS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION 
BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W BUT 
CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT LOOK TOO FAVORABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO 
MONITOR SYSTEM AS GFS KEEPS IT ALIVE IN SPITE OF ADVERSITY.    

$$
WALLY BARNES