000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W 10 KT BASED ON 
24 HOUR MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE EXISTS MAINLY W OF 
THE WAVE AXIS AND ALONG THE ITCZ. CONVECTION REMAINS 
DISORGANIZED. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 4N TO 12N MOVING W 10 KT BASED ON 
24 HOUR MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE EXISTS WITHIN 180 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ALONG THE ITCZ. MORE 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES AREA NEAR 
12N112W. THIS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W/129W FROM 7N TO 15N MOVING W 12 KT 
BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOTED AT THIS 
TIME. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W/140W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT 
BASED ON 24 HOUR MOTION. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOTED AT THIS 
TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF CIRRUS AT UPPER LEVELS 
MOVING E OVER THE AREA.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...8N78W 8N100W 11N110W 9N120W 9N140W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W 
AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N131W IS DRIFTING WWD AND WAS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH COVERED THE 
AREA N OF 18N W OF 127W. MODERATE SLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE 
CIRCULATION WAS PULLING MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD TO 25N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG WLY WINDS 
AT THE UPPER LEVELS WAS NOTED S OF THE CIRCULATION ALONG 12N AND 
EXTENDED EWD TO 130W. FURTHER E...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
NEAR 23N107W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...MEXICO 
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST PACIFIC W OF 90W. MODERATE ELY 
WINDS ALOFT AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE 
CONTINUED TO PROVIDE AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
FOR ANY OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 
12N112W. A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS NOTED NEAR 9N89W.
DIFLUENT FLOW E OF THIS FEATURE WAS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE COASTS OF 
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W.   

$$
COBB