000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190939 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 4 DEGREES W OF THE AXIS. CONVECTION REMAINS SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZATION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 5N TO 12N MOVING W 10 KT. THE ITCZ BOWS NWD ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NOTED. OTHER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW 12N112W HAS ALSO INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 7N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOTED AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 138W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOTED AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF CIRRUS AT 200 MB LEVEL MOVING E OVER THE AREA. ..ITCZ... AXIS ALONG...8N78W 6N86W 9N108W 6N118W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N77W TO 6N96W TO 11N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N112W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 11N116W 8N118W AND 7N120W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL FEATURES... TWO LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERS DOMINATE THE REGION'S FEATURES TONIGHT. ONE IS CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO AND THE OTHER NEAR 30N145W EXTENDING E TO 30N133W. A WEAKNESS IS BETWEEN THE TWO CENTERS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THE RIDGES SEPARATE THE WESTERLIES TO THE N ALONG 35N AND EASTERLIES TO THE S BETWEEN 10N AND 20N. A SHORTWAVE IN THE EASTERLIES LIES ALONG 130W AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING WWD. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS A ROTATION NEAR 20N130W..CLOSE TO WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A VORTICITY CENTER. LATER DAY 1 A SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL MOVE N OF THE WEAKNESS BUT HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON IT HEIGHT WISE. THE SHORTAVE IN THE EASTERLIES CONTINUES WWD SLOWLY TO ALONG 134W. THE TWO RIDGE CENTERS HOLD FIRM WITH SOME TENDENCY TO CLOSE THE WEAKNESS DOWN. FOR DAY 2 THE TWO RIDGE CENTERS BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR MOVES. THE WRN CENTER MOVES NE TO NEAR 33N140W WHILE THE NRN MEXICO CENTER BECOMES ELONGATED SW OVER CENTRAL BAJA TO 25N124W. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES INTO SRN CA WHILE THE SHORTAVE IN THE EASTERLIES MOVES TO NEAR 22N140W. SURFACE FEATURES... THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGEST N OF 20N AND W OF 125W WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT. NO PASS FROM QUIKSCAT AND SSMI TONIGHT HAS LIMITED COVERAGE BUT DOES SH0W 20 TO 25 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. WHILE THE RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE USUAL 15N110W THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES E OF 120W AND WINDS ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT. THE SLY SWELL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. 9 TO 12 FT SWELL HAS ADVANCED N TO 16N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W WHILE WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SLY. LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT N OF 20N W OF 130W AND AN AREA OF NLY WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W OF 20 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NWLY DAY 1 UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. SLY SWELL OF 9 TO 11 FT WILL CONTINUE S OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 90W AND 115W DAY 1. FOR DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD WITH WINDS N OF 28N E OF 120W INCREASING 15 TO 20 KT. OTHERWISE NE TRADES OF 20 KT WILL COVER THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS INCREASE SOME BUT REMAIN MOSTLY TO 20 KT. THE SLY SWELL BEGINS TO DECREASE DAY 2 TO MOSTLY 8 TO 10 FT BETWEEN 90W AND 105W S OF THE MEXICAN COAST. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN SLY WINDS S OF 6N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 9 FT. $$ RRG