000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190414
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 3 DEGREES W OF AXIS 
FROM 5N TO 10N.  UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR WAVE HAS BEEN 
PROVIDING MINOR DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG WAVE.  
ENVIRONMENT FURTHER WEST NOT SO FAVORABLE BUT MERITS WATCHING. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 5N TO 12N MOVING W 10 KT ABOUT TO 
CATCH UP WITH WEAK LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N109W.  INTERACTION 
LIKELY TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION BUT MODERATE NE WINDS ALOFT 
PRECLUDING MUCH DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W FROM 7N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT. 
ITCZ PULLED NWD ALONG AND E OF WAVE.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
HELP CONVECTION N OF 12N BUT ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT PRECLUDES 
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ W OF 133W.  STRONG 
WESTERLIES ALOFT PRECLUDING ANY DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH HEREAFTER BUT SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING E PAC VERY SOON. 

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...6N77W 6N88W 10N105W 6N115W 11N128W 9N140W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 105W TO 120W AND 
120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 135W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM 
RADIUS OF 6N98W. 

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N127W SWD TO 5-7 DEG 
WIDE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 19N132W THEN TO 11N128W.  MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ELSEWHERE
N OF 15N E OF 108W.  DOWNSTREAM...LARGE ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS 
WITH ARRAY OF EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONES AT 32N107W...21N108W AND 
12N93W.  MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT S OF RIDGE ADVECTING 
MOISTURE W ALONG SWATH FROM 10N TO 14N E OF 114W.

ELSEWHERE....TROPICAL E PAC S OF 4N REMAINS VERY DRY AND WITH NO 
DEEP CONVECTION.  

AT THE SURFACE...HEALTHY HIGH PRES RIDGE 1035 MB N OF AREA NEAR 
40N140W EXTEND SE TO COVER AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W.  USUAL BRISK 
TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W.  LARGE SWELL WHICH NWW3 
CORRECTLY FORECASTED AT 14 FT ARE CROSSING EQUATOR S OF 10N E OF 
120W CONTINUE AFFECTING AREA. 

$$
WALLY BARNES