000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 3 DEGREES W OF AXIS
FROM 5N TO 13N.  UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR WAVE HAS BEEN 
PROVIDING MINOR DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG WAVE.  
ENVIRONMENT FURTHER WEST NOT SO FAVORABLE BUT MERITS WATCHING. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 5N TO 12N MOVING W 10 KT IS ABOUT 
TO CATCH UP WITH WEAK LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N109W.  INTERACTION 
LIKELY TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION BUT MODERATE NE WINDS ALOFT 
PRECLUDING MUCH DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W FROM 7N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT. 
ITCZ PULLED NWD ALONG AND E OF WAVE.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
HELP CONVECTION N OF 12N BUT ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT PRECLUDES 
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 136W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ W OF 133W.  STRONG 
WESTERLIES ALOFT PRECLUDING ANY DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH HEREAFTER BUT SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING E PAC VERY SOON. 

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...7N77W 6N83W 9N95W 10N106W 8N115W 12N125W 8N140W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 113W AND 120 
NM N OF AXIS W OF 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N127W SWD TO 5-7 DEG 
WIDE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 2N134W THEN TO 87N123W.  MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ELSEWHERE N 
OF 15N E OF 108W.  DOWNSTREAM...LARGE ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS WITH 
ARRAY OF EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONES AT 32N110W...19N104W AND 12N93W. 
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT S OF RIDGE ADVECTING MOISTURE W 
ALONG SWATH FROM 10N TO 14N E OF 114W.

ELSEWHERE....TROPICAL E PAC S OF 4N REMAINS VERY DRY AND WITH NO 
DEEP CONVECTION.  

AT THE SURFACE...HEALTHY HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA EXTEND SE TO 
COVER AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W.  USUAL BRISK TRADE WINDS FROM 10N 
TO 20N W OF 130W.  LARGE SWELL WHICH NWW3 MIGHT BE OVERDOING AT 
13 FT ARE CROSSING EQUATOR S OF 10N E OF 120W CONTINUE AFFECTING 
AREA. 

$$
WALLY BARNES