000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 5N INTO GUATEMALA MOVING W 10 KT.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM DIMINISHING AS 
DRY AIR INTRUSION LIMITS ITS CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG ITCZ FROM 12N TO 15N 
WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF WAVE AXIS.  UPPER ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO 
ADVERSE BUT DRY AIR MASS SURROUNDING IT CURTAILS POSSIBLE 
DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT.  CLOUDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ MIX WITH WAVE AXIS.  UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE 
COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION ON E SIDE OF WAVE.
 
ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 133W FROM 5N TO 13N 
MOVING W 10 KT.  WAVE NOT IDENTIFIABLE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...8N82W  9N102  13N120W  9N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 110W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 27N139W ENTERS E PAC EXTENDING THE 
ARRAY OF SIMILAR CENTERS ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF BASIN AND 
KEEPING DRY AIR MASS WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE.  

LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 12N FROM 
120W AND 125W.  AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N133W WITH EMBEDDED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED AT 16N128W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
MAINTAINS DRY AIRMASS N OF 14N W OF 107W.  LARGE STATIONARY 
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 19N101W OVER CENTRAL MEXICO PULLING 
MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO E PAC BASIN ALONG COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE MAKES
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXCEPT THAT 
DRYNESS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIMITS DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM.  
ITCZ BARELY NOTED E OF 115W.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1031 MB N OF AREA HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND INTO E PAC BASIN TO 13N112W WITH USUAL TRADES W OF 120W 
AND BRISK WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA.  

LARGE SOUTH SWELLS FORECAST BY NWW3 TO REACH 13 FT ARE CROSSING 
EQUATOR INTO E PAC BASIN S OF 10N E OF 125W.
  
$$
WALLY BARNES