000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 12N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 
10 KT.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM IS 
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BUT HAS PLENTY OF DRY AIR 
INTRUSION LIMITING ITS CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 5N TO 13N IS MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG ITCZ FROM 6N TO 9N 
WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF WAVE AXIS.  UPPER ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO 
ADVERSE BUT DRY AIR MASS SURROUNDING IT CURTAILS POSSIBLE 
DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. 
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ALSO RELATED TO ITCZ ALONG AXIS OF WAVE.  
UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION ON E SIDE OF 
WAVE.
 
ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W FROM 5N TO 13N MOVING W 10 
KT.  WAVE IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE EVEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...7N78W  5N90W 12N118W  5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 12N FROM 
120W AND 125W.  AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N133W WITH EMBEDDED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED AT 18N138W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
MAINTAINS DRY AIRMASS N OF 15N W OF 106W.  LARGE STATIONARY 
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 21N101W OVER CENTRAL MEXICO PULLING 
MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO E PAC BASIN ALONG COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE MAKES
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXCEPT THAT 
DRYNESS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIMITS DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM.  
ITCZ BARELY NOTED E OF 115W.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER N OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND 
INTO E PAC BASIN TO 15N110W WITH USUAL TRADES W OF 120W AND 
BRISK WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA.  

LARGE SOUTH SWELLS FORECAST BY NWW3 TO REACH 13 FT ARE CROSSING 
EQUATOR INTO E PAC BASIN S OF 10N E OF 125W.
  
$$
WALLY BARNES