000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 10N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOVING 
W ABOUT 10 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 5N TO 14N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIE ALONG THE 
ITCZ FROM 6N TO 9N WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE 
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 5N TO 15N IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. 
LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE 
AXIS FROM 9N TO 14N WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY W OF 
THE WAVE.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 5N TO 13N IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. 
THE WAVE IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE ON MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG...5N77W 5N90W 8N100W 6N110W 11N116W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A 12N120W 10N126.5W LINE AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A 7N133.5W 7N140W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH DOMINATES THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED FROM N OF ABOUT 12N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY THROUGH 
32N120W TO 12N132W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 17N125W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE UP TO 12 DEGREES FROM THE 
CIRCULATION CENTER. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT COVERS THE AREA S OF 10N.

E OF 110W...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE AREA S OF ABOUT 20N. AT THE 
SURFACE A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N105.5W...MOVING W 
ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 13N107W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW 
CENTER. SOUTHERLY SWELLS IN THE 9 TO 13 FOOT RANGE FROM S OF THE 
EQUATOR ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
  
$$
CAB