000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170922 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N TO 13N ALONG 101W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BOWING OF ITCZ MAY BE WAVE INFLUENCED BUT CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W FROM 4N TO 14N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ HAS BEEN DECREASING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS NO CURVATURE TO THE CLOUDS WHICH WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF A CIRCULATION. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG...5N77W 4N83W 9N101W 6N106W 12N117W 5N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N78W 4N81W 7N95W 7N99W AND 6N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N113W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N118W TO 7N131W TO 7N140W. OTHER MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 8N79W 12N91W 14N93W AND 14N104W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL FEATURES... A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 32N129W COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 115W AND W OF 140W FROM 22N NWD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE AREA WITHIN THE RIDGE INDICATIVE OF VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LAYER. THE RIDGE SEPARATES THE WESTERLIES TO THE N AND TROPICAL EASTERLIES TO THE S. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE SW US TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT AFFECT OUR REGION. THERE IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IN THE EASTERLIES ALONG 120W S OF 22N BUT ALL IT'S DOING IS BOWING THE ITCZ NWD. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING ALONG 30N. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO WITH PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TO THE N. FOR DAY 2 THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE DEFINED OVER NW MEXICO BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. ANY HEIGHT FALLS OVER MEXICO ARE SHORTLIVED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG 30N WWD TO W OF 140W..AFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF THE WESTERLIES TO THE N. THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES CONTINUE S OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 15N AND 25N. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY WWD TO ALONG 130W DAY 2. SURFACE FEATURES... THE PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUES CENTERED NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND APPEARS 1-2 MB WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE RIDGE STILL IS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI W OF 130W. NO PASS FROM QUIKSCAT. A NLY FLOW PERSISTS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W BUT BOTH MICROWAVE IMAGERY MISS THIS AREA. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT ARE NWLY AS USUAL BUT LIGHT WITH THE PACIFIC RIDGE MAINLY W OF 120W. FOR LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH NE TRADES OF 20 KT MAINLY W OF 130W. THE NLY FLOW N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W BECOMES A LITTLE MORE NELY WITH N SWELL OF 9 FT DAY 1. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL INCREASES DAY 1 WITH 9 TO 12 FT LONG PERIOD SW SWELL DEVELOPING. FOR DAY 2 SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE DAY 2 BUT THE OVERALL RIDGE SHIFTS NWD THUS NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 125W. N SWELL OF 9 TO 11 FT MOVES INTO THE AREA N OF 26N W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN NWLY AT 10 TO 15 KT DAY 2. SW SWELL OF 9 FT OR GREATER CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD OVER THE REGION REACHING 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. THIS IS LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM STRONG WINDS OVER THE S PACIFIC WHERE THE SEASON IS LATE FALL. SOME OF THE INCREASE IN SW SWELL WILL MOVE E OF 90W TOWARD THE PANAMANIAN COAST WITH HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FT DAY 2. $$ RRG