000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170414
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUN 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NEW TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING E PAC BASINF ALONG 86W N OF 8N.
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE.  

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N TO 13N ALONG 100W MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 10N WITHIN 90 NM W OF AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ CLOSE 
TO WAVE.  UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 4N TO 14N MOVING W 10 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ CLOSE 
TO WAVE.  UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...11N86W  12N103W  10N110W  11N116W  6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS W OF 114W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR MASS N OF 13N W OF 106W DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED 
WITH ARRAY OF ANTICYCLONES COVERING MOST OF AREA. VERY DRY ALSO 
S OF 3N W OF 80W LEAVING ONLY ITCZ AS ONLY SWATH OF MOISTURE IN 
E PAC BASIN WITH UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES ADVECTING WATER FROM 
SOUTH AMERICA.  CARIBBEAN BASIN AND GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAIN 
DRY DUE TO EXTENSION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG TROPICAL 
LATITUDES.

ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N135W HAS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDING E OVER AREA N OF 15N.  DOWNSTREAM...MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N104W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 15N124W THEN 
TO 2N132W.   ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTEND ALONG 22N 
FROM ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 23N113W TO 19N100W THEN BEYOND INTO 
GULF OF MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1030 MB JUST N OF AREA HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND N OF 15N W OF 120W.  WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N103W 1008 
MB DRIFTING W.  DIMINISHING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
PULLING AWAY FROM LOW PRES AND NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A THREAT 
ANYTIME SOON...NEVERTHELESS IT REMAINS UNDER CONSTANT MONITORING 
FOR ANY SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
  
$$
WALLY BARNES