000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162218
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N TO 14N ALONG 99W MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 10N WITHIN 90 NM W OF AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W FROM 4N TO 13N MOVING W 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ CLOSE 
TO WAVE.  UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 4N TO 13N MOVING W 10 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ CLOSE 
TO WAVE.  UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...6N77W  11N96W  10N115W  6N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS W OF 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 13N W OF 107W DUE TO SUBSIDENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH STRING OF ANTICYCLONES COVERING MOST OF AREA. 
VERY DRY ALSO S OF 3N W OF 82W LEAVING ONLY ITCZ AS ONLY SWATH 
OF MOISTURE IN E PAC BASIN WITH UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES ADVECTING 
WATER FROM SOUTH AMERICA CONTINENT.  CARIBBEAN BASIN AND GULF OF 
MEXICO ALSO REMAIN DRY DUE TO EXTENSION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
ALONG TROPICAL LATITUDES.    

ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N135W HAS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDING E OVER AREA N OF 15N.  DOWNSTREAM...MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N108W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 15N124W THEN 
TO 3N125W.   ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTEND ALONG 22N 
FROM ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 23N113W TO 19N96W THEN BEYOND INTO 
GULF OF MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1032 MB WELL  NW OF AREA HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND N OF 15N W OF 120W.  WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N103W 1009 
MB DRIFTING W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AWAY 
FROM LOW PRES 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 17N98W.  
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DIMINISHED ITS CONVECTION AND 
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A THREAT ANYTIME SOON...NEVERTHELESS IT 
REMAINS UNDER CONSTANT MONITORING FOR ANY SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
  
$$
WALLY BARNES