000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160927 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 7N MOVE W 10 KT. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MAINLY N OF 10N ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE. NO ORGANIZATION NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W FROM 3N TO 15N MOVE W 12 KT. THERE IS SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF 13N. LINES OF LOW CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN IN CURVED BANDS STREAMING IN THE CONVECTION. OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE CONVECTION N OF 13N HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THE PAST FEW HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVE W 10 KT. THERE IS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THE ITCZ WHERE THIS WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED BUT NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W FROM 4N TO 14N MOVE W 10 KT. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND THAT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO OTHER INDICATION OF THE WAVE'S PRESENCE. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...7N78W 9N98W 9N112W 9N124W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N78W AND 7N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 7N93W 8N98W 9N115W 9N128W 8N135W AND 9N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AT 11N87W AND FROM 14N92W TO 15N95W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N99W TO 12N103W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL FEATURES... A STRONG UPPER HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N132W TONIGHT ELONGATED W TO E. THE RIDGE WAS EFFECIVELY SEPARATING THE WESTERLIES TO THE N AND TROPICAL EASTERLIES TO THE S. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BARRELING SE OVER THE SW US BUT WILL NOT AFFECT OUR REGION. IN THE EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED NEAR 110W AND 130W. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CELL TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY NEAR 32N131W BUT THE RIDGE AXIS OVER MEXICO GETS DEPRESSED SWD AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SE. IN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES THE TWO SHORTWAVES ADVANCE WWD SLOWLY. FOR DAY 2 THE W TO E MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG 138W AND 120W WHILE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW US BRUSHES BY NE MEXICO. IN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES ONE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME ALONG 116W WHILE THE OTHER ONE WEAKENS ALONG 135W. SURFACE FEATURES... THE PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 30N140W TO 15N115W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE NE TRADES W OF 125W BETWEEN 10N AND 25N. AN AREA OF NLY WINDS N OF 25N E OF 125W CONTINUE TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI IMAGERY. A WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR 12N100W CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD WITH ONLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINLY N OF THE CENTER. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL WEAKEN SOME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. AN AREA OF SLY SWELL TO 9 FT IS APPROACHING THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. WINDS S OF 10N ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE S AND SE. FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH N AND NE WINDS CONFINED TO W OF 130W MAINLY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 123W AND 135W. THE AREA OF SLY LONG PERIOD SWELL OVER THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE NWD TO 5N WITH HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 12 FT. $$ RRG