000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W N OF 7N MOVE W 10 KT.  NO CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVE W 10 KT.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS.  NO 
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVE W 10 KT.  AREA OF 
WEAKENING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 
8.4N108.3W.  NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION IS NOTED.
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W FROM 3N TO 14N MOVE W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS.  NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...7N77W 7N95W 10N120W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINTS 7N87.2W AND 7.2N97.1W AND 8.4N108.4W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 117W TO 
123W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH OF 29N E OF 120W IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHWESTERN 
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TROUGH IS ALONG LINE 20N104W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 110W.  WEST OF 
THE TROUGH AND SOUTH OF 28N TO THE ITCZ THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS ARE OBSERVED TO BE DRY IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.

EAST OF THE TROUGH THE AREA IS DIFLUENT ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION.  MODERATE 
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR IS INHIBITING ANY DEVELOPMENT IN 
THIS AREA.

SURFACE...MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 112W.  BROAD 
TROUGH IS ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW 11N99W 1011 MB.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 13N98W.  LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS 
PRESENT.
   
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LL