000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 93W/94W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF THE WAVE FROM 95W TO 98W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 107W MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED  
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE 
FROM 106W TO 109W. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N-14N ALONG 120W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 123W.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...7N78W 11N90W 7N95W 
10N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 82W TO 87W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 95W TO 98W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA TO 28N120W
THEN SHEAR AXIS TO 26N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 5N TO 24N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF ITCZ TO 
30N W OF 105W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 15N W OF 
125W.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS N OF 5N  E OF 100W WITH 
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW...1011 MB...IS NEAR 13N99W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 98W 
AND 101W. ANOTHER LOW IS TO THE NW NEAR 16N107W...1010 MB...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW.  HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH 
AXIS FROM 32N137W TO 20N115W.
   
$$
DGS