000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SMALL FLARE 
UP OF CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ POSSIBLY CAUSED BY WAVE OTHERWISE 
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS. NO ORGANIZATION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 4N-13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO 
CONVECTION ACTIVE AT THIS TIME. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 3N-14N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ITCZ 
BOWS NWD ALONG 120W..POSSIBLY CAUSED BY WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. NO ORGANIZATION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 140W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
BROKEN MID CLOUDS ALONG WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ALONG ITCZ. NO ORGANIZATION. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 7N92W 9N106W 
11N118W 10N129W 5N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N83W 
6N87W 7N94W 5N96W AND 6N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 
A LINE FROM 10N115W TO 10N127W TO 9N130W AND FROM 7N136W TO 
6N140W.

LOW PRES NEAR 12N98W 1010 MB. SMALL BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM E AND NE QUADRANTS OF CENTER.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
NEAR 7N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N83W TO 9N85W AND FROM 
13N88W TO 15N99W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...

THE APPEARANCE OF MID LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE REGION IS A NEW 
FEATURE TONIGHT. 

AN ELONGATED W TO E UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 35N140W TO 27N120W 
TO NRN MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS SEPARATING WESTERLIES TO THE N AND 
EASTERLIES TO THE S. AN INVERTED TROUGH LIES OVER THE EXTREME NW 
GULF WHERE THE EASTERLY FLOW CROSSES OVER THEN HEADS SW ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO TO BETWEEN 12N AND 22N AT 120W. THE EASTERLIES 
THEN MOVE NW OVER ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 140W.

LATER DAY 1 THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS E TO 32N134W STILL 
MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS EWD TO NRN MEXICO. THE EASTERLIES 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION BETWEEN 15N 
AND 25N.

FOR DAY 2 THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER MOVES TO NEAR 31N132W AND 
CONTINUES AN W TO E AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO. WESTERLIES ARE KEPT 
N OF THE REGION WHILE EASTERLIES CONTINUE ON THE S SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE BETWEEN 15N AND 25N.

SURFACE FEATURES...

ON THE SURFACE MAP TONIGHT THE PACIFIC HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF 
THE REGION AND EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 15N110W. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT 
CONFIRM WHAT THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 06Z FOR NE TRADES S OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS. BOTH SHOW NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT W OF 130W. ALSO A 
NLY FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE 
QUIKSCAT THAN SSMI BY ABOUT 5 KT. A WEAK LOW WAS NEAR 12N98W 
MOVING WNW 10 TO 15 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE NE TRADES W OF 130W OF 20 KT 
MAINLY S OF 22N AND A NLY WIND E OF 125N TO THE BAJA COAST OF 20 
KT N OF 25N. THE GFS MODEL DOES NOT LOCK ON TO THE WEAK LOW BUT 
RATHER TRACKS SOMETHING ALONG 10N NEAR 98W.

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENING SOME 
WITH NE TRADES TO 20 KT W OF 130W. THE NLY WINDS E OF 130W N OF 
25N WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS DO THE NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THE 
MODEL STILL TRACKS A WEAK LOW ALONG 10N TO NEAR 104W DAY 2 WITH 
NO DEVELOPMENT.
   
$$
RRG