000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 KT. ONLY 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM W OF 
THE WAVE AXIS N OF 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 4N-13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ONLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30-60 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 8N-12N. STRONG E WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE EXPECTED TO 
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 3N-14N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-12N IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ 
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE WAVE S OF 5N.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...5N78W 8N90W 8N105W
10N117W 10N127W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
90W-94W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-96.5W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 84W-86.5W...AND FROM 8N-11.5N BETWEEN 116W-123W.

LOW PRES NEAR 12N96.5W 1010 MB. LOW IS NOT WELL DEFINED
AT THIS TIME BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AS 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 
94W-99W. LOW MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IF CURRENT TREND OF
DECREASING SHEAR CONTINUES.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N118W SW THROUGH 
27N130W TO MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE AREA 
NEAR 22142W AND THEN CONTINUES SW TO 15N149W. EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY COVERS ALMOST THE ENTIRE
AREA NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 110W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
ARE SEEN NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 122W. 

A RATHER STRONG RIDGE IS NW OF THE TROUGH. CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN
IN THIS AREA IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUT THERE IS UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS SYSTEM. MOSTLY OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED AT THE LOWERS LEVELS.

THE THE AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL EAST OF 
100W WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING HERE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
EASTERLY SHEAR IS TENDING TO INHIBIT MAJOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N131W 
25N122.5W TO 20N119W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF
16N AND WEST OF 118W.
   
$$
AGUIRRE