000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142216
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 KT. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE
AXIS N OF 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 4N-14N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ONLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30-60 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 8N-12N. STRONG E WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE EXPECTED TO 
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 3N-14N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-12N IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 138W FROM 2N TO 13N MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS E OF 
THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 6.5N137W.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...5N78W 9N100W 8N105W
10N116W 8N128W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-94W...AND WITHIN
30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 80W-83W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 
116W-120W.

AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 94W-98W IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NEAR 12N96W MOVING
W ABOUT 10 KT.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 210 NM SW OF
WEAKENING LOW PRES NEAR 15N105W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N118W SW THROUGH
27N130W TO MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE
AREA NEAR 21141W AND CONTINUES SW 15N149W. THE AREA IS DRY IN 
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH IMPLIED UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED
AT THE LOWER LEVELS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 122W. 

A RATHER STRONG RIDGE IS NW OF THE TROUGH. CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN
IN THIS AREA IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUT THERE IS UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS SYSTEM. MOSTLY OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED AT THE LOWERS LEVELS.

THE THE AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL EAST OF 
100W WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING HERE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
EASTERLY SHEAR IS TENDING TO INHIBIT MAJOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF
115W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS A BROAD TROUGH WITH THE WEAKENING
LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N105W 1009 MB. THE LOW NEAR 12N96W 1010 MB 
APPEARS SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
   
$$
AGUIRRE