000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  CONVECTION 
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 10N IS DECREASING AND SHOWS NO SIGNS 
OF ORGANIZATION. STRONG UPPER EASTERLY WIND SHEAR PRECLUDES 
DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 3N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
ONLY MINOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE N OF 11N. 
STRONG E WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 3N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
AXIS ALONG ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 2N TO 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...4N77W 11N115W 
10N125W 5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINTS 3.5N78.6W AND 5.5N85.9W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE POINT 5.4N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 8N TO 13N FROM 93W TO 
99W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SOUTH OF A LINE THROUGH 32N122W 
TO 24N140W AND NORTH OF A LINE 32N114W TO 20N125W TO THE ITCZ 
NEAR 115W.  THE AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
IMPLIED UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  SKIES ARE CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS.  

A RATHER STRONG RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.  SKIES ARE 
CLEAR IN THIS AREA IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BUT THERE IS 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS SYSTEM.  THE LOWER 
LEVELS ARE COVERED BY MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS.

THE THE AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH IS COVERED BY A MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL EAST OF 100W 
WITH AREA OF CONVECTION.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR 
WOULD INHIBIT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W.  REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA IS A BROAD TROUGH WITH A WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N105W 
1010 MB.  THE LOW IS DRIFTING WEST.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS LOW IS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 14.9N106W. 
   
$$
LL