000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 9N WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
AXIS AND FROM 3N TO 6N W OF AXIS TO THE COAST.  STRONG UPPER 
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR PRECLUDES DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 3N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
ONLY MINOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE N OF 11N. 
STRONG E WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 1132W FROM 3N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
AXIS ALONG ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 136W FROM 2N TO 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W  12N101W 
5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS E OF 95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N123W TO 
20N140W WITH VERY DRY AIR WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  LARGE WELL ANCHORED 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 28N110W DOMINATES AREA FROM 
TROUGH TO 100W N OF 18N.  NEW ANTICYCLONE FORMED NEAR 12N124W 
NOW ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING RIDGE TO SW CORNER OF BASIN WITH 
DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS COVERING FROM 
20N125W TO 13N111W.  

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX IN SRN 
LOUISIANA ACROSS SRN MEXICO TO 10N96W ESSENTIALLY INTERRUPTS
WLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG ITCZ AND ADVECTS IT NE ACROSS 
ERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO T.S. ALBERTO NOW IN SE CONUS.  MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN PROVIDES 60 KT JET CORE 
TO MOVE AIR MASS NE. 

WITH EXCEPTION OF ABOVE MENTIONED DRY BREAK IN FLOW...S OF 12N
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO ITCZ FROM SOUTH AMERICA UNDER 
LONG STRETCH OF EASTERLIES ON SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGES MENTIONED 
ABOVE.  ENVIRONMENT ALOFT STILL CARRIES 20-30 KT SHEAR NOT 
MAKING FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL WAVES AT SURFACE. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS
RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 161N114W.  
   
$$
WALLY BARNES