000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140231
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 4N MOVING W AT 10 KT BASED ON 24 
HOUR MOTION. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER COSTA RICA AND 
NICARAGUA. STRONG UPPER EASTERLY WIND SHEAR PRECLUDES 
DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W FROM 4N TO 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT BASED 
ON 24 HOUR MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
WAVE AND STRONG E WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY 
DEVELOPMENT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT BASED 
ON 24 HOUR MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ASSOCIATED 
WITH WAVE POSSIBLY DUE TO ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W FROM 2N TO 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT BASED 
ON 24 HOUR MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  NO DEVELOPMENT IS 
EXPECTED. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 12N100W 8N115W 
7N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 12N120W 8N125W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 96W...AND E OF 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 30N130W TO 
15N140W. DRY AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
WITHIN 120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS IMPLIES 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 28N109W DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 95W AND THE 
TROUGH NOTED ABOVE. MOST OF THIS AREA IS DRY ALOFT THE EXCEPTION 
IS SOUTH OF 15N FROM 110W TO 130W WHERE MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS. ALSO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO SOUTH OF 
20N.  WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN THIS 
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W.  
   
$$
COBB