000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW 17N105W 1008 MB DRIFT W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 
16.1N106W.  THIS CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SW 
QUADRANT.  NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT ARE PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE 
LOW AND THIS WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS 
TIME.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 4N MOVE W AT 10 KT. MINOR 
CONVECTION TRAILS WAVE AXIS BUT STRONG UPPER EASTERLY WIND SHEAR 
PRECLUDES DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W FROM 4N TO 13N MOVE W AT 10 KT.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AND STRONG E WINDS 
ALOFT OVER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVE W AT 10 KT.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE POSSIBLY DUE 
TO ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRON.  UPPER SHEAR EXPECTED TO 
DECREASE AND MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD MIGHT GIVE THIS WAVE LAST GASP 
BEFORE REACHING DRY AIR MASS AHEAD. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W FROM 2N TO 12N MOVE W AT 10 KT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 10N105W 5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE POINT 3.4N78.4W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 
128W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N116W TO 15N140W.  DRY AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITHIN 360 NM NW OF THE LINE. THIS IMPLIES UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA.  IN THE LOW LEVELS SKIES ARE CLEAR 
NORTH OF 25N E OF 128W.  ELSEWHERE IN THIS AREA BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN THE LOW LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS.  MOST OF THIS AREA IS DRY ALOFT THE EXCEPTION IS 
SOUTH OF 15N FROM 110W TO 130W WHERE MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS.  ALSO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO SOUTH OF 
20N.  WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN THIS 
AREA.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH 
IS OVER THE AREA.
   
$$
LL