000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130307
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W MOVING W AT 10 KT BASED ON 24 HR MOTION. 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT 
THIS TIME. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 12 KT BASED ON 24 HR 
MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
AT THIS TIME. STRONG ELY WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO 
PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W/108W MOVING W AT 10 KT BASED ON 24 
HOUR MOTION. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BEING MASKED BY AN 
AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE N NEAR 16N104W AND EVEN THERE CONVECTION 
HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY THIS EVENING. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVING W 10 KT BASED ON 
24 HR MOTION. NEARBY CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORE DIRECTLY 
RELATED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 7N127W. 
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. 

..ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...8N82W 13N97W 
8N115W 7N125W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
RATHER STABLE BUT UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE PATTERN IS 
COMPRISED OF A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST SWD TO 20N135W THEN CONTINUING TO BEYOND 
16N140W AS A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS SWEEPING 
SEWD ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 32N126W 
TO 26N135W. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH THE FIRST TROUGH 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER E...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 26N107W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 
18N120W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH 
AND RIDGE IS CONFLUENT PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC AND MEXICO N 
OF 15N. S OF 15N...STRONG ELY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES E OF 115W IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A SECOND RIDGE OVER 
THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN.  A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT ELY FLOW IS 
LOCATED NEAR A WEAK TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
17N97W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W PART OF THE ITCZ IS 
WEAKER AND FROM THE SE TO S.  AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFUSE COLD 
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N122W AND EXTENDS SWD TO 23N132W 
WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 21N140W. 
   
$$
COBB