000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 180 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82 MOVING W AT 10 KT BASED ON 24 HR MOTION. 
THE WAVE IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ONLY 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE  
SW CARIBBEAN. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 KT BASED ON 24 HR 
MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. 
STRONG ELY WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY 
DEVELOPMENT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W/107W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT BASED ON 
24 HOUR MOTION. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BEING MASKED BY A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE N NEAR 16N103W. SIMILARLY...MUCH 
OF THE NEARBY CONVECTION APPEARS MORE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LOW PRES. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN THE 
ITCZ JUST W OF THE AXIS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT BASED 
ON 24 HR MOTION. NEARBY CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORE DIRECTLY 
RELATED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 7N127W. 
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. 

..ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 13N97W 
8N110W 6N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AS IN THE PAST THREE TO FOUR DAYS AN UNUSUALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. THE PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SWD TO 20N133W THEN CONTINUING TO 
BEYOND 15N140W AS A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. FARTHER E...A LARGE 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N107W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO 18N120W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE 
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND RIDGE IS CONFLUENT PRODUCING MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
PACIFIC AND MEXICO N OF 15N.  S OF 15N...STRONG ELY FLOW ALOFT 
CONTINUES E OF 115W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO 
AND A SECOND RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN.  A SMALL AREA 
OF LIGHT ELY FLOW IS LOCATED NEAR A WEAK TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS 
SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 14N100W.  THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W PART 
OF THE ITCZ IS WEAKER AND FROM THE SE TO S.  AT THE SURFACE...A 
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N124W AND EXTENDS SWD 
ALONG 25N130W TO BEYOND 22N140W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. 
   
$$
COBB