000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W MOVING W AT 10 KT BASED ON 24 HR MOTION. 
THE WAVE IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.  
THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY 
UNFAVORABLE AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 10 KT BASED ON 24 HR 
MOTION. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE 
PRIMARILY W OF THE AXIS AND WITHIN THE ITCZ. STRONG ELY WINDS 
ALOFT OVER WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR 
MOTION. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BEING MASKED BY A BROAD 
AREA OF LOW PRES TO THE N.  SIMILARLY...MUCH OF THE NEARBY 
CONVECTION APPEARS MORE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES. A 
SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ JUST W OF 
THE AXIS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT BASED 
ON 24 HR MOTION. NEARBY CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORE DIRECTLY 
RELATED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 8N122W. 
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. 

..ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 13N95W 
8N107W 7N112W 8N122W 4N132W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 122W FROM 6N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 113W AND 117W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN 
PREVAILS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THE PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF 
A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SWD 
TO 20N133W THEN CONTINUING TO BEYOND 15N140W AS A CYCLONIC SHEAR 
AXIS. FARTHER E...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS/NEW 
MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 17N125W.  THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND RIDGE IS 
CONFLUENT PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC AND MEXICO N OF 15N.  S OF 
15N...STRONG ELY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES E OF 115W IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A SECOND RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC 
AND CARIBBEAN.  A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT ELY FLOW IS LOCATED NEAR A 
WEAK TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 14N100W.  THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W PART OF THE ITCZ IS WEAKER AND FROM THE SE 
TO S.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 
32N125W AND EXTENDS SWD ALONG 26N130W TO BEYOND 23N140W WHERE IT 
BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY. 
   
$$
RHOME