000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120933 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SW CARIBBEAN WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 93W IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. STRONG ELY WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE PRECLUDES ANY DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N TO 13N ALONG 105W IS MOVING W AT 12 KT. ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER NEAR 15N104W HAS ACTIVE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT..OTHERWISE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH WAVE. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS NOTED ARROUND CLUSTER. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 3N TO 13N IS MOVING W 5 KT. 1008 MB LOW NEAR 7N127W IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW BUT NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WITH BETTER OUTFLOW NOTED NEAR 8N122W. ..ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...8N80W 15N103W 8N107W 7N112W 9N127W 4N134W 4N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 8N84W 11N95W 13N97W AND 9N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N115W TO 9N122W TO 4N133W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 7N140W. CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER 15N104W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL FEATURES... A LARGE POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT DROPPING SWD TONIGHT ALONG 130W APPROACHING OUR REGION. COLD AIR LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS N OF 23N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NRN MEXICO REMAINS STATIONARY TONIGHT WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 13N130W. THE UPPER RIDGE W OF THE AREA ALONG 150W REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK RIDGE TO 20N137W. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS SWD IN THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH. BOTH RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH RESPOND BY STRENGTHENING BUT REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR DAY 2 ENERGY BEGINS TO EXIT THE UPPER TROUGH AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TOWARD THE CA COAST. THE NRN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE RESPONDS BY BUILDING 20 TO 30 METERS AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD. THE UPPER RIDGE W OF THE REGION ALSO STRENGTHENS SOME BUT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 30N148W. SURFACE FEATURES... A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WAS JUST N OF THE REGION TONIGHT NEAR 33N127W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 28N130W AND 25N140W. NLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL. NO HELP FROM SSMI AND QUIKSCAT IN THIS REGION. WEAK PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO 15N110W BUT GRADIENT WEAK AND NE TRADES TO 20 KT MAINLY W OF 128W BETWEEN 8N AND 20N. SATELLITES MISS THE PASS ALONG THE BAJA COAST THEREFORE NO IMAGERY AVAIABLE BUT GFS MODEL SHOWS NW WINDS TO 20 KT. WEAK LOW NEAR 15N104W MOVING SLOWLY WWD WITH PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION. LATER DAY 1 THE WEAK LOW N OF THE AREA LIFTS NE WHILE THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES TO 30N125W 26N130W 23N140W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NELY 20 KT WITH N SWELL BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND NE TRADES TO 20 KT ARE CONFINED TO W OF 130W BETWEEN 8N AND 18N. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. FOR DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES AND THE PACIFIC RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 15N110W. NE TRADES INCREASE IN SPEED AND AREAL COVERAGE WITH 20 KT COVERING AN AREA BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 122W. NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST PICK UP TO 20 KT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. $$ RRG