000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W/79W IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 91W IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE ONLY  
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OVER PORTIONS OF 
GUATEMALA. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC.
 
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N TO 13N ALONG 104W IS MOVING W AT 12 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
WAVE AXIS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ. ADDITIONAL 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
WEAK 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 15N104W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 3N TO 13N IS MOVING W 10 KT. 1008 
MB LOW NEAR 7N127W IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE LOW AND WAVE AXIS TO 119W. 

..ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...10N86W 12N98W 
6N113W 9N120W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 128W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30N121W THROUGH
20N135W TO 17N140W. AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATED THE 
AREA ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF THE SHEAR AXIS WITH ANOTHER 
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N128W TO 27N136W. 
DIVING SE AT 20 KT. A LARGE STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
23N109W DOMINATED THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 120W...BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND MEXICO. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXISTED BETWEEN 
THIS ANTICYCLONE AND THE SHEAR AXIS NOTED ABOVE GENERALLY N OF 
15N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT EXTENDED FROM 30N128W TO 26N140W AND WAS MOVING SE AT 10 
KT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N 
OF 12N W OF 110W. 
   
E OF 110W...
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W 
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERED SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE MODERATE UPPER 
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. 
THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS 
THE DEEP TROPICS AND ALSO SHEARING SOME OF THE CONVECTION AWAY 
FROM THE WEAK 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 14N105W.  
   
$$
COBB