000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. MOST OF THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO 
THE WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS.  NO CONVECTION IS OVER THE PACIFIC 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 90W IS MOVING W AT 10 KT.  
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMEICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS 
DIMINISHED.  NO CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC.
 
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N TO 13N ALONG 103W IS MOVING W AT 12 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ. 
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A WEAK 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 15N104W. 

RE-LOCATED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W FROM 3N TO 13N IS MOVING W 
10 KT. 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N126W IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED E 
OF THE LOW AND WAVE AXIS TO 117W. 

..ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...10N86W 8N105W 
6N115W 8N124W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30N122W THROUGH
20N135W TO 17N140W. AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATED THE AREA 
ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF THE SHEAR AXIS WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING 
SHORTWAVES NOTED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A LARGE STATIONARY 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N108W DOMINATED THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 120W...
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
EXISTED BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND THE SHEAR AXIS NOTED ABOVE 
GENERALLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. AT THE SURFACE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 30N130W TO 27N140W AND WAS 
MOVING SE AT 10 KT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W. 
   
E OF 110W...
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W 
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERED SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE MODERATE UPPER 
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. 
THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS 
THE DEEP TROPICS AND ALSO SHEARING SOME OF THE CONVECTION AWAY 
FROM THE WEAK 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 14N105W.  
   
$$
COBB