000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W MOVE W 10 KT.  ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE 
IS CONVECTION IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE 
AXIS.  NO CONVECTION IS OVER THE PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 90W IS MOVING W AT 10 KT.  
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMEICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS 
DIMINISHED.  NO CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC.
 
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N TO 13N ALONG 102W MOVE W AT 12 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 13N.  NO ORGANIZATION TO 
THE CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 3N TO 13N MOVE W AT 12 KT.  NO 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION 
WITHIN THE ITCZ AND THIS CONVECTION SHOWS NO ORGANIZATION AND NO 
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE CLOUDS. 

..ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 10N100W 
6N115W 8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
OF THE POINT 10.5N101W AND THE POINT 8.5N106.4W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 
116W TO 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...
MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH IS WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N114W TO 
13N140W.  N OF 27N SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSERVED BUT THE 
SKIES ARE CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  S OF 27N THIS 
AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH IMPLIED UPPER 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OVER MOST OF THE 
AREA NORTH OF 15N.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY A WEAK MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE.  SOME OF THIS AREA IS ALSO DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS THE EXCEPTION IS SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 115W.  THIS 
AREA HAS AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREA 
OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRES NEAR 15N103W 1006 MB IS DRIFTING WEST.  ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LOW IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM OF 14.2N103.8W.  LOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE 
IN NEXT 48 HOURS.

RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 112W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH COVERS 
THE AREA.
   
$$
LL