000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 89W IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. ITCZ BOWED 
UP TO WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION GUATEMALA AND 
EL SALVADOR AND OFFSHORE OF EXTREME S MEXICO. NO ORGANIZATION TO 
CONVECTION AND NO CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE CLOUDS. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 101W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG WAVE 
AXIS. SLIGHT ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION BUT ACTIVITY WEAKENING 
PAST FEW HOURS. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W FROM 5N TO 14N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON ITCZ FROM WAVE AXIS E TO 120W 
BUT NO ORGANIZATION AND NO CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE CLOUDS. 

..ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...12N88W 13N95W 
7N112W 9N123W 6N130W 4N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 8N83W 
10N94W AND 13N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 
FROM 10N100W TO 8N109W AND FROM 6N118W TO 8N122W TO 7N128W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 3N138W AND 8N139W.

CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N101W 
AND 15N104W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER CONTINUES TO 
LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TONIGHT BETWEEN 120W AND 130W N OF 20N. 
THE OLD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS DRIFTED S TO N MEXICO 
LAST NIGHT AND TONIGHT REMAINS AS A FLAT RIDGE PATTERN OVER NRN 
MEXICO EXTENDING SW TO 20N115W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIES S OF 
THE RIDGE OVER SRN MEXICO EXTENDING WSW TO 10N110W. A SECOND 
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED W OF THE REGION ALONG 150W WEAKLY RIDGES 
EWD TO 24N135W.

LATER DAY 1 AS THE STRONG VORTICITY CENTER DRIVES SWD TO NEAR 
34N130W MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL N OF 20N. IN 
RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS..THE NRN MEXICO RIDGE WILL 
RE-ORIENT ITSELF NWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT STILL MAINTAIN A 
CENTER OVER NRN MEXICO AND A WEAK RIDGE SW TO 18N120W. WEAK 
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN MEXICO WSW TO 10N110W. THE 
UPPER RIDGE W OF THE AREA ALONG 150W BUILDS NWD WHILE 
MAINTAINING A WEAKER RIDGE ESE TO 20N136W.

FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL ANOTHER 40 METERS AS THE MAIN 
CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVES SWD BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. 
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGIZES THE TWO UPPER RIDGES WITH 
THE GFS MODEL SHOWING A WELL DEFINED CENTER OVER NRN MEXICO WITH 
AN AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 20N120W. WEAK TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER 
SRN MEXICO BUT WEAKER. THE RIDGE W OF THE AREA DEVELOPS A CENTER 
NEAR 30N148W WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N135W.

SURFACE FEATURES...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE 
REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 50 NM WIDE BAND OF 
LOW CLOUDS AND IS MOVING ESE 15 KT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
INCREASE TO N 20 KT WITH AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE MAINTAINS A WEAK PRESENCE OVER THE REGION N OF 
10N AND W OF 110W WHERE SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS NE TRADES TO 20 KT 
MAINLY BETWEEN 10N AND 22N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
ARE NWLY TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. A WEAK 
LOW CENTER IS NEAR 15N103W MOVING W 10 KT. THE CIRCULATION HAS 
BEEN EVIDENT THE PAST 24 HRS AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ON THE 
SW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS ENHANCING CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW BETWEEN 
100W AND 110W WITH QUIKSCAT SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SLIGHTLY 
STRONGER THAN SSMI AND THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. 

LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR 30N131W TO 27N140W 
WITH NO CHANGE TO WINDS OR SEAS. THE PACIFIC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE 
ALONG 23N140W TO 17N110W. NE TRADES WILL BE CONFINED TO AN AREA 
BETWEEN 10N TO 20N W OF 130W AT SPEEDS TO 20 KT. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. NO CHANGE TO 
THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS AS THE LOW PRES CENTER CONTINUES 
WWD TO NEAR 15N105W.

FOR DAY 2 WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER N OF AREA WILL MOVE TO NEAR 
33N123W WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING TO 30N123W 21N137W. 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NE WINDS BEHIND THE 
FRONT AND OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 130W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. LOW PRES CENTER 
WILL CONTINUE WWD TO NEAR 15N106W AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS 
TO 20 KT WILL BE CONFINED TO S OF 12N AND BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. 
   
$$
RRG