000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 83W IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. SOME 
CYCLONIC TURNING OF MID CLOUDS NOTED. ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH 
NO ORGANIZATION. STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE PRECLUDE ANY 
DEVELOPMENT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 97W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
A WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR 14N94W POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. 
ONLY PLACE WHERE CONVECTION PERSISTING..OTHERWISE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITH NO ORGANIZATION. STRONG NE 
WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W FROM 5N TO 14N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. NO CYCLONIC 
TURNING OF CLOUDS NOTED. STRONG E AND NE WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE. 

..ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 7N78W 10N86W 
14N90W 16N101W 8N102W 7N113W 10N125W 7N134W 9N140W. ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 7N79W 14N93W AND 15N102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7N82W TO 
11N106W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 6N113W 6N119W 8N124W 10N127W 
8N131W AND 8N139W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...

WESTERLIES BECOMING MORE ZONAL TONIGHT N OF 30N AS EARLIER 
STRONG RIDGES BREAKDOWN. ONE RIDGE HAS BEEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS 
THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOW EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 20N115W. THE OTHER 
RIDGE IS CENTERED W OF THE REGION S OF 30N AND EXTENDS E TO 
25N135W. A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO LIES BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE E TO 
130W N OF THE AREA BUT LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS DRIFTS S TO 
OVER NRN MEXICO WHILE TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE SW TO 22N110W. 

FOR DAY 2 THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES DIGS S BETWEEN 125W AND 
135W LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE WEAKNESS S TO 20N. THE UPPER RIDGE 
OVER NRN MEXICO CONTINUES TO EXTEND SW TO 15N120W WHILE 
TROUGHING OVER SRN MEXICO WEAKENS SOME. THE RIDGE W OF THE AREA 
BUILDS NWD WHILE CONTINUING A WEAK RIDGE E TO 22N138W.

SURFACE FEATURES...

THE PACIFIC HIGH 1022 MB CENTERED NEAR 30N134W TONIGHT RIDGES SE 
TO NEAR 15N110W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT 
BETWEEN 10N AND 22N W OF 125W ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI. 
NLY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN 120W AND 130W N OF 
20N. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO 
BOTH SSMI AND QUIKSCAT TONIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS 
CONTINUE E OF 105W AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS N OF 10N E OF 110W.

LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE PACIFIC HIGH TO MOVE SW TO NEAR 28N140W 
AT 1022 MB AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE 
NW. NE TRADES TO 20 KT CONFINED TO 10N TO 20N W OF 125W. WINDS N 
OF 20N E OF 130W DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. NO CHANGE TO THE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS E OF 110W.

FOR DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TO 
30N131W 26N140W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO NLY 20 KT. 
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SO WILL NE TRADES WITH MOSTLY NE WINDS 15 
KT BETWEEN 9N AND 20N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL 
REMAIN NWLY 10 TO 15 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN 
SOME DAY 2 AS PRESSURES RISE A LITTLE N OF 10N E OF 110W. SLY 
SWELL TO 9 FT MAKES ITS WAY N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 100W DAY 2.  

$$
RRG