000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091019 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 79W IS MOVING W AT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ACTIVITY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME AND NO CYCLONIC TURNING. TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 93W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10 KT. THERE IS AN AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 13N93W. THE AREA IS MORE A CLUSTER THAN BAND AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE TOP OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THE NE WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SWLY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 5N TO 14N IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ..ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 6N80W 11N93W 7N112W 6N120W 7N134W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 2N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N105W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 6N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 20 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N122W TO 9N135W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 15N96W AND 15N106W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL FEATURES... A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM OVER THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT BLOCKING A PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH ALONG 120W FROM MOVING E. THE TROUGH IS TRYING TO LIFT OVER THE RIDGE BUT IT'S MAIN ANCHOR OVER NW WA STATE IS STATIONARY. A SECOND BROAD RIDGE W OF 130W HAS A RIDGE AXIS NNE ALONG 135W N OF THE AREA WHICH IS STRENGTHENING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ALONG 150W MOVES SLOWLY EWD. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE STRONGEST FEATURE..WHICH IS THE MID PACIFIC TROUGH TO MAKE IT'S INFLUENCE FELT BY MOVING THE TROUGH ALONG 120W EWD. THE CLOSED OFF RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHIFTS S JUST ENOUGH TO LET THE TROUGH MOVE EWD. THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE MID PACFIC WILL BEGIN TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE DAY 1 WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON S OF 30N W OF 130W. FOR DAY 2 FEATURES GET GOING WITH THE TROUGH ALONG 120W MOVING INLAND OVER THE SRN PLAINS RIDGE. THE CLOSED HIGH SETTLES OVER NRN MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS WWD FROM THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO TO 13N118W. THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID PACIFIC MOVES TO 130W DAY 2 WITH A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING S TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W PORTION OF THE AREA SHIFTS SLOWLY WWD..W OF 135W. SURFACE FEATURES... THE PACIFIC RIDGE ALONG 135W IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA BUT EXTENDS S TO 10N AND E DOWN THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 110W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 25N W OF 130W AND NLY WINDS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W OF 20 KT S TO NEAR 20N. QWIKSCAT SHOWED NLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN THIS AREA BUT ONLY EXTENDS W TO 127W. SSMI DOESN'T HELP MUCH WITH A BLANK SPACE IN THE SAME AREA. BAD NIGHT FOR SATELLITE COVERAGE..BUT THE GFS MODEL SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT AT 06Z. SOME CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD LOWER PRESSURE S OF 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. SSMI CONFIRMS WHAT THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT WINDS SHIFT TO SWLY AT ABOUT 20 KT. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE PACIFIC RIDGE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD TO ALONG 132W. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NE TRADES. NLY WINDS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME. NO CHANGE TO THE CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SW WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR DAY 2 A NEW FEATURE BEGINS TO APPEAR JUST NW OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E. LATE DAY 2 THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO N AND NE 20 KT. OTHERWISE NE TRADES TO 20 KT MAINLY BETWEEN 10N AND 22N W OF 128W WILL CONTINUE. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY. CROSS EQUATORIAL S WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SWLY N OF 8N AND INCREASE TO 20 KT WITH S AND SW SWELL 8 TO 9 FT. $$ RRG