000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 3N MOVE W AT 5 TO 10 KT. THIS WAVE 
IS ENTERING AN AREA OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW. THIS WAVE 
WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVE W 10 KT. THIS WAVE 
IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

..ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS RATHER FAR TO THE N OVER 
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON 
QUIKSCAT...SHIP AND SATELLITE DATA THE AXIS IS ALONG 13N88W 
12N100W 6N112W 8N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 92W-100W 
AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-109W.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF PANAMA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N79W TO 
6N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN A 45 NM 
RADIUS OF 15.5N98W. SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS
OF 15N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.  
THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW ALONG 
30N119W 26N130W TO NEAR 24N140W. THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS 
APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION CONTINUES 
MOVING EASTWARD. GFS INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION MAY 
TRY TO CUT-OFF AND FORM AN UPPER LOW IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W.

LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N98W. 
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. RIDGE EXTENDS W ALONG 17N110W...THEN WEAKENS 
BUT CONTINUES TO NEAR 14N120W.  A MOIST...MODERATE TO STRONG 
NE-E UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN PACIFIC S OF 
THE RIDGE E OF 110W. THE MODERATE S-SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER.  
HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE-E FLOW IS INHIBITING ANY 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. CLUSTERS OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC E OF 110W...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION 
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
104W AND 109W.

$$
BROWN