000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 2N MOVE W AT 10 KT. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION WITH STRONGEST CELLS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. NO 
ORGANIZATION. STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT OVER WAVE NOT CONDUCIVE TO 
ANY DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 4N TO 14N MOVE W 10 KT. A FOUR 
DEGREE DIAMETER AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION E OF WAVE 
AXIS ON ITCZ EXPERIENCING STRONG E WINDS ALOFT. NO ORGANIZATION 
TO CONVECTION. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...6N78W 11N89W 9N99W 
10N108W 7N116W 8N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
3N83W TO 6N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 9N100W TO 9N109W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 6N118W AND 
11N135W. 

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N80W 7N82W 13N88W AND 14N93W. 
CLUSTER OF STRONG NEAR 15N97W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 15N104W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...

A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT IS 
HOLDING BACK AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 115W. THE TROUGH IS SLOWLY 
MOVING E N OF 30N BUT S OF 30N IT'S NEARLY STATIONARY. A SECOND 
UPPER RIDGE WAS BUILDING N ALONG 130W AHEAD OF A STRONG NEG 
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE MID PACIFIC.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER FEATURES. THE BLOCKING 
RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 115W TRIES TO LIFT NWD 
AND THE SECOND RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 135W.

FOR DAY 2 WEAK UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG 120W..REMNANTS OF 
THE OLD UPPER TROUGH. THE BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER 
THE SRN PLAINS WHILE THE SECOND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS BETWEEN 130W 
AND 140W.

SURFACE FEATURES...

THE PACIFIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED N OF THE AREA ALONG 135W TONIGHT 
AND EXTENDED OVER THE REGION N OF 10N W OF 110W. THE RIDGE WAS 
PRODUCING NE TRADES W OF 125W TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. AN AREA OF NLY WINDS 
OF 20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND 130W N OF 20N WAS ALSO EVIDENT FROM A 
FEW SHIP REPORTS AND SSMI. NO QUIKSCAT PASS WAS AVAILABLE. SOME 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT WERE EVIDENT BETWEEN 90W AND 
110W ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT EARLIER THIS EVENING. LOWER PRESSURE 
N OF 10N E OF 100W WAS CAUSING THE INCREASE IN SLY WINDS. 

LATER DAY 1 NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL PATTERN OR 
WINDS. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. 

FOR DAY 2 THE PACIFIC HIGH 1022 MB WILL DROP SE TO NEAR 33N133W 
AN MAINTAIN NE TRADES TO 20 KT W OF 130W. THE NLY WINDS BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W WILL DECREASE TO 15 KT WITH NLY SWELL TO 8 FT. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL S AND SW WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 90W AND 
100W.

$$
RRG