000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 2N MOVE W AT 7 KT.  NO CONVECTION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 4N TO 14N MOVE W 7 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 
9N108W.  CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY DURING THE LAST 
SEVERAL HOURS.  SOME SLIGHT ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION IS 
NOTICED.  UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR WOULD INHIBIT THE 
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. THE COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP 
THIS SYSTEM.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...4N76W 9N105W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
POINT 14.5N93W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 13.9N96.7W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
POINT 8.9N107.3W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL...
A MAINLY MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N FROM 110W TO 125W.  
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH AND WEAKENING AS FORECAST.  SKIES 
ARE CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

N OF 25N W OF 125W WEAK RIDGE IS OBSERVED.  NO WEATHER IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. 

SOUTH OF THE ABOVE SYSTEM AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF A 
LINE FROM 21N105W TO 122W AT THE ITCZ THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS ARE OBSERVED TO BE DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS IMPLIED IN THIS REGION. 

NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE LINE FROM 21N105W TO 122W AT THE 
ITCZ THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE. 
MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA WITH 
EMBEDDED CONVECTION.  AT THIS TIME THE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING.  
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND THE FAR 
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF MEXICO.  STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W.  BROAD TROUGH IS 
ELSEWHERE.

$$
LL