000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 2N MOVE W AT 7 KT.  NO CONVECTION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107.5W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVE W 10 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE POINT 9N108.8W.  CONVECTION IS DECREASING.  SOME 
SLIGHT ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION IS NOTICED.  THE COMPUTER 
MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...4N77W 9N105W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
POINTS 14N96.5W AND 16.3N105.6W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 
9N108.8W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL...
A MAINLY MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N FROM 110W TO 125W.  
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH AND WEAKENING AS FORECAST.  SKIES 
ARE CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

N OF 25N W OF 125W WEAK RIDGE IS OBSERVED.  NO WEATHER IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. 

SOUTH OF THE ABOVE SYSTEM AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF A 
LINE FROM 21N105W TO 122W AT THE ITCZ THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS ARE OBSERVED TO BE DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS.  

NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE LINE FROM 21N105W TO 122W AT THE 
ITCZ THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE. 
MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA WITH 
EMBEDDED CONVECTION.  AT THIS TIME THE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING.  
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST FROM THE HONDURAS PACIFIC COAST TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 
21N105W.  STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT 
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W.  BROAD TROUGH IS 
ELSEWHERE.

$$
LL