000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 3N MOVING W AT LESS THAN 10 KT WITH 
NUMEROUS DEEP CONVECTION N OF 10N.  VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS 
HIGHER THAN FORECAST CAN BE FELT IN VICINITY OF WAVE AXIS OR 
DEEP CONVECTION.  NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME AS UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRON NOT TOO FAVORABLE BUT AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR 
ANY CHANGE THAT COULD ENHANCE ORGANIZATION.  PRESENTLY...SLOW 
MOVEMENT OF WAVE HAS CONVECTION COVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
S OF 20N. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 5N TO 14N MOVING W 10 KT EMERGING 
FROM UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AND APPROACHING DRY AIR MASS 
FURTHER WEST.  SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER LAST 12 
HOURS INDICATES DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO WAVE.   

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...13N87W  14N97W  7N122W 
8N140W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
300 NM N OF AXIS E OF 102W.  MODERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION 
WITHIN 360 NM S OF AXIS FROM 90W TO 103W.  RAPIDLY DECREASING 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
8N109W ASSOCIATED TO WEAK LOW PRES 1010 MB.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHI 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
SUCCESSION OF ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS SPREAD ACROSS E PAC MAINTAINS 
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS.  STARTING WITH 
WESTERNMOST EDDY AT 11N127W LINKING WITH NEXT ONE AT 19N111W  
KEEPING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TO ITS NORTH AND WEST.  VERY DRY 
CONDITIONS N OF 10N W OF 106W HELP THE STATUS QUO.  WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N118W TO 21N105W SADDLES RIDGE LINK TO NEXT 
ANTICYCLONE AT 19N95W.  EVEN STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THIS 
TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE ABLE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS DUE 
TO DRYNESS OF AIR MASS.  RIDGE THEN MANAGES TO ENTER NW 
CARIBBEAN TO CONNECT TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 

SOUTH PERIPHERY OF RIDGE REMAINS SOAKED WITH MOISTURE AND 
CONVECTION S OF 20N E OF 106W WITH LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIONFROM 
10N TO W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  STRONG NE FLOW OVER 
CONVECTION NOT CONDUCIVE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION BUT PERSISTENT 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SW FLOW OF MOIST WARM AIR HAS BEEN FEEDING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.  

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB N OF AREA HAS SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTEND TO 17N112W KEEPING STRONG WINDS HUGGING COASTS OF 
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA.  N SWELLS CONTINUE SPREADING S INTO E PAC
N OF 20N E OF THROUGH NEXT 36 HRS.  NE TRADE WINDS BEGINNING TO 
PICK UP AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS.  

PERSISTENT SW TO W STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG S EDGE OF 
EQUATORIAL TROUGH E OF 115W FEEDING ITCZ WITH MOISTURE LADEN AIR 
FOR CONVECTION.       
 
$$
WALLY BARNES