000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070926 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUN 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 85W MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10 KT BASED ON 24 HOUR MOVEMENT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE E EXTENT OF A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON GYRE LOCATED S OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE GYRE MAY SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW PRES S OF GUATEMALA OR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 105W FROM 6N TO 14N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10 KT BASED ON 24 HR MOVEMENT. THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE FROM A LARGE MONSOON GYRE S OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...7N77W 15N92W 10N110W 8N125W 11N130W 9N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE ITCZ AND 500 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 82W AND 100W. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 110W AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N... A HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N116W. A WEAK RIDGE LIES OVER REMAINING PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM ALONG 32N122W 20N140W. THE RESULTING FLOW IS PRIMARILY CONFLUENT SE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND BECOMES ESPECIALLY STRONG OVER THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR BETWEEN 105W AND 115W INCLUDING THE S HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND W PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST AND DIFFLUENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO COURTESY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SW TO WLY FLOW. THIS SETUP IS SUPPORTING ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WAINING DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND ONLY SOME HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN AT THIS HOUR. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL REFLECTION W OF BAJA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED TRADES WEAKER THAN NORMAL. S OF 15N... THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS IS A LARGE MONSOON GYRE CENTERED S OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 85W AND 105W...IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OF THE ITCZ E OF 100W. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS WELL INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND S PORTIONS OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS OVERALL AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL MOVE LITTLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED ITCZ ACTIVITY IS LOCATED BETWEEN 107W AND 111W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 110W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ IS GENERALLY TRANQUIL WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION NOTED W OF 128W. $$ RHOME