000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84.5W N OF 2N MOVE W 12 KT.  THE WAVE IS IN 
AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 
8.8N86.2W.  HOWEVER THE AREA DOES NOT SHOW ANY UNUSUAL 
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION AND THE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS 
NOT ORGANIZED.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG NORTHEAST AND IS NOT 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG NE SHEAR ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W 12 KT.  MINOR 
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE WITH NO SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...6N77W 8N105W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE POINT 8.8N86.2W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 9N109.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N 
EAST OF 125W.  MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM HAS MOVED NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT NEAR THE CLOUDINESS AND IS CENTERED 
NEAR 28.4N115.4W.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD.  

A NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE ABOVE CIRCULATION AND A TROUGH 
NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 130W.  THIS AREA IS MOIST IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS BUT CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  THE 
SURFACE IS COVERED BY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

SOUTH OF THE ABOVE SYSTEMS THE HEIGHT FIELD IS RATHER FLAT.  THE 
AREA WEST OF 108W BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND THE ITCZ 
TO THE SOUTH IS OBSERVED TO BE DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.  EAST OF 108W THERE IS EXTENSIVE MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION.  ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION IS NOT 
EXPECTED BECAUSE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE 
AREA IS DIFLUENT ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA 
EAST OF 108W.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 115W.  REMAINDER OF AREA IS A 
WEAK BROAD TROUGH.

$$
LL