000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 2N MOVE W 10 KT.  THE WAVE IS IN AN 
AREA OF EXTENSIVE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COAST.  HOWEVER THE AREA NEAR THE WAVE DOES NOT SHOW 
ANY UNUSUAL CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION AND THE CONVECTION NEAR 
THE WAVE IS NOT ORGANIZED.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG NORTHEAST 
AND IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG NE 
SHEAR ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 6N TO 14N MOVING W 10 KT.  MINOR 
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE WITH NO SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...5N77W 8N105W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 
NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM 5N TO 16N.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 
8N TO 11.3N FROM 105W TO 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N 
EAST OF 125W.  MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM HAS MOVED NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT NEAR THE CLOUDINESS AND IS CENTERED 
NEAR 27.6N116W.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD.  

A NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE ABOVE CIRCULATION AND A TROUGH 
NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 130W.  THIS AREA IS MOIST IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS BUT CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  THE 
SURFACE IS COVERED BY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

SOUTH OF THE ABOVE SYSTEMS THE HEIGHT FIELD IS RATHER FLAT.  THE 
AREA WEST OF 108W BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND THE ITCZ 
TO THE SOUTH IS OBSERVED TO BE DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.  EAST OF 108W THERE IS EXTENSIVE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 
NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE AREA IS DIFLUENT ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EAST OF 108W.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 115W.  REMAINDER OF AREA IS A 
WEAK BROAD TROUGH.

$$
LL