000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 81W MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED 
OF 10 KT.  CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND THE WAVE IS POORLY 
DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME THE WAVE IS APPROACHING A LARGE AREA 
OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FURTHER W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE 
MONSOON GYRE CENTERED S OF S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE 
INTERACTION OF THE WAVE AND GYRE MAY SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW PRES S 
OF GUATEMALA OR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS. 

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 101W FROM 6N TO 14N MOVING W AT AN 
ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10 KT.  THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN A LARGE 
MONSOON GYRE S OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO AND THE RESULTING 
INTERACTION IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. HOWEVER...UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR SUITABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 12N100W 
8N120W 11N126W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 360 
NM S OF ITCZ E OF 100W.  SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 90W TO 102W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 
100W AND 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
PACIFIC WATERS WITH A HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE E 
HALF OF THE AREA.  THE BLOCK IS COMPRISED OF A ANTICYCLONE OVER 
THE SW UNITED STATES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND A LARGE 
CUTOFF LOW SW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 25N117W.  THE CORE OF 
THE STRONGEST WESTERLIES LIE N OF THE AREA AS THEY RIDE UP AND 
OVER A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE W UNITED STATES.  THE RESULTING FLOW 
IS PRIMARILY CONFLUENT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA ESPECIALLY S OF 
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 500-700 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
AND REACHING W PORTIONS OF MEXICO N OF 20N.  THE FLOW BECOMES 
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO 
SUPPORTING DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN 
WEAKENING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND 
CLOUDINESS REMAINING AT THIS TIME.  AT THE SURFACE...THE 
PRESENCE OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOWER 
LEVEL REFLECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
ACROSS THE AREA.  AS SUCH...TRADES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.  

S OF 15N...
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS IS A 
LARGE MONSOON GYRE CENTERED S OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND S 
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 101W...IS 
SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ E 
OF 100W. A SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED ITCZ ACTIVITY IS LOCATED 
BETWEEN 105W AND 115W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK ELY DISTURBANCE 
ALONG 110W. 
 
$$
RHOME