000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050924 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HUGGING THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 16.1N 99.1W AT 0900 UTC. ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...AND MOTION EAST AT 5 KT. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. NO FURTHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W FROM 3N TO 14N AND IS MOVING W 12 KT. CONVECTION IS ISOLATED WITH NO ORGANIZATION. STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...8N78W 7N86W 10N104W 7N119W 8N127W 6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 7N78W TO 8N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 9N124W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 12N88W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA NEAR 13N92W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 16N99W ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF T.D. TWO-E. ...DISCUSSION UPPER LEVEL FEATURES... WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO MAKE ENRODES INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH ALONG 144W IN WATER VAPOR AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 06Z GFS MODEL. CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SRN BAJA COAST. AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING W OVER CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA COINCIDES WELL WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ON GFS CHART. WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N140W TO 30N125W TO SW U.S. LATER DAY 1 UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO 140W AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY WWD TO NEAR 26N115W WITH IT'S MAIN VORT CENTER ALONG THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST THEREFORE GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH THIS VORT CENTER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE SAME PATH BUT THE PORTION OVER THE SW U.S. STRENGTHENS SOME. FOR DAY 2 THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS TO 136W WHILE THE MAIN PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES RECEDE NWD. A WEAK RIDGE FORMS ALONG 130W WHILE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST DRIFTS NW TO NEAR 26N117W. A FAIRLY STRONG VORT CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO NEAR 28N117W WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS DEVELOPING DAY 2 OFF THE UPPER BAJA COAST. THE CLOSED OFF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW U.S. REMAINS STATIONARY AND EXTENDS S OVER MEXICO N OF 20N. SURFACE FEATURES... THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAD A 1022 MB CENTER TONIGHT NEAR 29N138W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N115W. A WEAK TROUGH WAS OFF THE UPPER BAJA COAST FROM 30N115W TO 20N122W. A SECOND TROUGH WAS WELL S OF LOWER BAJA FROM 16N105W TO 11N115W. BOTH WERE MOVING SE AND WEAKENING. NE TRADES W OF 130W WERE MOSTLY MODERATE NELY 15 TO 20 KT WHILE NLY WINDS BETWEEN 120W AND 125W N OF THE FIRST TROUGH WERE NLY 20 TO 25 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. QUIKSCAT ALSO SHOWED AN AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W WITH SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL DRIFT TO NEAR 30N135W WITH SOME DECREASE IN NE TRADES. WINDS BETWEEN 120W AND 125W ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY. WINDS N OF 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SOME INCREASE IN CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 5N E OF 90W TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL DRIFT NWD ALONG 136W WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING N OF 10N AND W OF 120W THEREFORE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A POSSIBLE LOW FORMING NEAR 7N88W AND INCREASES S AND SW WINDS S OF 10N E OF 100W 20 TO 25 KT. SOME SPECULATION ON THIS HAPPENING BUT IT IS IN THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THIS AREA DAY 2. $$ RRG