000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 16.5N 99.8W OR ABOUT 30 MILES OR 
45 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 2100 UTC.  ESTIMATED 
SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...AND MOTION EAST AT 9 KT.  THE 
PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC 
AND MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 5N AND IS MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS 
NORTH OF 9N.  THE CONVECTION SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 
STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...4N76W 12N105W 
8N115W 5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 13.5N93W AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 11.5N95.5W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
POINT 14.5N99.8W.

...DISCUSSION

UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...
FLAT PATTERN IS OVER THE AREA.

NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 130W BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE 
AREA.  UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27.4N113.1W.  
SOME CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOME 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO.

A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF A 
LINE FROM 20N105.5W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 119W AND EXTENDS WEST TO 
130W.  DRY AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA I.E. THE NORTHWEST PART AND THE AREA EAST 
OF THE LINE FROM 20N105.5W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 119W...IS COVERED BY 
BROAD MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGES.

SURFACE...
A GENERAL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN IS OVER THE AREA.  WEAK RIDGE IS 
OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 125W.  REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
IS A BROAD TROUGH.
  
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