000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040917 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 17.0N 102.0W OR ABOUT 60 MILES OR 100 KM DUE WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 0900 UTC. ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...AND MOTION IS STATIONARY. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W IS MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 4 DEGREES OF THE AXIS BUT NO ORGANIZATION. STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 4N TO 15N IS MOVING W 8 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS E OF WAVE AXIS BUT CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZING. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...7N78W 8N93W 16N100W 9N110W 8N120W 10N128W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG THE COAST FROM 1N79W TO 6N78W TO 8N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 10N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N107W AND 11N113W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 8N124W 10N126W AND 6N130W. ...DISCUSSION UPPER LEVEL FEATURES... LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD OFF WESTERLIES TONIGHT. WESTERLIES BRUSH EXTREME NW CORNER THEN HEAD INLAND OVER CENTRAL WESTERN CONUS. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N140W ENE TO SW US. WEAK CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N113W. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR SOME ERROSING OF RIDGE OVER EXTREME NW CORNER AS WESTERLIES PERSIST AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. CLOSED UPPER LOW BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED WITH CENTER NEAR24N114W. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES IN ABOUT SAME POSITION. FOR DAY 2 RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER W OF 130W AS WESTERLIES DIP INTO NW CORNER OF OUR REGION AND SHORTWAVE PASSES ALONG 140W. UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES CENTER OVER NM WHILE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NW TO NEAR 25N117W. SURFACE FEATURES... PACIFIC HIGH 1022 MB CENTERED OVER EXTREME NW CORNER OF AREA NEAR 28N139W WITH AXIS TO 15N110W. RIDGE PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 24N W OF 130W. GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA PRODUCING NLY WINDS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W N OF 24N OF 20 KT AND NLY SWELL OF 8 FT. SLY WINDS CROSSING THE EQUATOR TONIGHT ACCELERATE AND BECOME SWLY 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 6N AND 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. LATER DAY 1 PACIFIC HIGH 1022 MB NEAR 29N137W WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND PATTERN. A WEAK TROUGH DROPS S ALONG THE UPPER BAJA COAST. THIS WILL KEEP STRONGER NLY WINDS W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN NWLY 10 TO 15 KT. LITTLE CHANGE TO SWLY WINDS BETWEEN 6N AND 14N EXCEPT FOR WINDS BECOMING W AND NW N OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SLY WINDS INCREASE S OF 4N E OF 90W TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL 9 TO 11 FT. FOR DAY 2 PACIFIC HIGH 1021 MB MOVES TO NEAR 30N133W. NE TRADES FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME..MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH NE SWELL TO 8 FT. WILL STILL HAVE NLY WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND 126W N OF 24N WITH NLY SWELL OF 8 FT. SW AND W WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W AT 20 KT AND SLY SWELL 8 TO 10 FT. S AND SW WINDS OF 20 KT ALSO S OF 7N AND E OF 90W WITH SLY SWELL 8 TO 10 FT. $$ RRG