000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 17.2N 102.0W OR ABOUT 45 
MILES...75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AT 0300 UTC. 
ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...AND MOTION IS NE OR 035 
DEG AT 6 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
40 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
OF THE CENTER.  CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND SEEMS TO BE HINDERED 
BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THESE UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT 
AND THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO LAND...BUT ONLY 
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO 
TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W IS MOVING W 12 KT.  UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119.5W FROM 4N TO 15N IS MOVING W 8 KT. 
LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 8N110W 
6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 6.3N93.1W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINTS 9.2N93.3W AND 10.8N106.2W AND 
11.6N111.4W.

...DISCUSSION

UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 125W.  ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM IS SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

WEAK MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FROM 100W TO A LINE FROM 
20N125W TO 10N140W.  NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 22N106W TO THE 
ITCZ NEAR 122W THE AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTION MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND OVER MOST OF 
CENTRAL MEXICO.  EAST OF LINE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
THE ITCZ NEAR 108W NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE AREA. 
MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE ALSO WITHIN THIS 
AREA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A WEAKENING HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N127W 
1024 MB. THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 12N 
WEST OF 115W.  A BROAD TROUGH IS OBSERVED OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA.

$$
LL