000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 16.7N 102.3W OR ABOUT 85 
MILES...135 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AT 2100 UTC. 
ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...AND MOTION IS NE OR 035 
DEG AT 7 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
40 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
OF THE CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 18N FROM 98W TO 105W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS 
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE 
ESTIMATED CENTER IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO LAND...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN WINDS COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM 
STATUS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC 
AND MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91.5W IS MOVING W 12 KT.  UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 4N TO 15N IS MOVING W 12 KT. A LOW 
LEVEL SWIRL NEAR 8N118W APPEARS TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE THE 
ITCZ BUT LACKS CONVECTION.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 6N90W 
12N105W 7N125W 5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 83W TO 
92W.

...DISCUSSION

UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 125W.  ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM IS SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

WEAK MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FROM 100W TO A LINE FROM 
20N125W TO 10N140W.  NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 22N106W TO THE 
ITCZ NEAR 122W THE AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTION MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND OVER MOST OF 
CENTRAL MEXICO.  EAST OF LINE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
THE ITCZ NEAR 108W NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE AREA. 
MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE ALSO WITHIN THIS 
AREA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N127W 1025 MB.
THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 
115W.  A BROAD TROUGH IS OBSERVED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA.

$$
LL